Type of Publication: Article in Journal

Demographic Consequences of HIV

Karlsson, Martin; Pichler, Stefan
Title of Journal:
Journal of Population Economics
Volume (Publication Date):
28 (2015)
Number of Issue:
HIV AIDS Mortality Life expectancy Fertility Synthetic control groups I15 J11 O15
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
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In this study, we estimate the effect of the HIV epidemic on demographic outcomes in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. We apply the synthetic control group method and estimate the consequences for life expectancy, mortality, and birth rates. According to standard measures of fit, the method seems to perform well for all countries and outcomes. Our results show a large effect on life expectancy and mortality in two countries, and a small and insignificant effect on birth rates. The impact of the pandemic is very heterogeneous. In Mozambique, the impact of HIV on life expectancy and mortality appears to have been surprisingly small. This heterogeneity is not due to AIDS causing fewer deaths in Mozambique than in the two other countries. Instead, the net effect of HIV in Mozambique appears to be diminished by reduced mortality for other causes—in particular child mortality, respiratory infections, and injuries.